Published on October 1st, 2020 |
by Dr. Maximilian Holland
October 1st, 2020 by Dr. Maximilian Holland
Electric vehicle pioneer Norway saw a massive 81.6% plugin electric vehicle market share of the overall market in September, with almost 62% being pure electric vehicles. Best sellers included the new VW ID.3, the Tesla Model 3, and Polestar 2. Pure fossils tumbled to just 11.1% market share.
As usual, pure battery electrics (BEVs) took the larger share, with 61.5% and plugin hybrids (PHEVs) taking 20.1%. The strong BEV push in September lifted the BEV share somewhat higher than normal. So far this year, the cumulative share for plugin vehicles has reached 70.8%, with BEVs taking 50.5% share and PHEVs taking 20.3%. The combined market share result for all plugins in full year 2019 was 56%.
The ID.3’s strong 1st month push of 1989 units somewhat mirrors what we saw in the Tesla Model 3’s first month back in March 2019, though the Tesla hit a much higher 5,315 units at the time. There’s always some pent-up demand and excitement for a compelling new model — the actual sales volume is more dependent on the OEM’s logistics and delivery strategy, and whether it is serious about selling EVs. Volkswagen has built up a decent stock of ID.3 over recent months, and all of its statements and investments suggest it is serious about selling EVs.
Eventually monthly sales will settle to steadier volumes, and it will be interesting to see what those will be. The ID.3 will no doubt become a very popular choice, and deservedly so, judging by early reviews.
For 2020 year-to-date, the BEV top 5 spots are so far occupied by the Audi e-tron, VW e-Golf, Hyundai Kona, Nissan LEAF, and Tesla Model 3. There’s a chance the LEAF could be relegated to #6 spot by the ID.3 before the end of this year. Last month’s strong showing for the Mercedes EQC has since turned out to be an outlier. The MG ZS continues to show up in volume, and is now trending to end the year in the #7 spot, but the Polestar 2 may yet dispute that.
Overall, it’s good to see the model landscape maturing in Norway, with a few high sellers but also a broad range of steady sellers each achieving a more modest share (close to 5%). This broadening distribution of sales will continue in 2021 as we see more new BEV models launching, and gradually becoming part of the reliable sales landscape.
With Norway’s 2020 cumulative share now 70.8% and the 4th quarter share likely to be similar to what we’ve just seen in September, for the full year I think at least 73% share is now a safe bet and 75% share is a possibility. Whatever the final figure, it’s certainly remarkable to see pure gasoline and diesel fall off a cliff to 11.1% share. Their cumulative 2020 figure still stands at 19.9% but is obviously falling rapidly. We should see some months in 2021 fall below 10%.
Have you taken delivery of an ID.3, a Polestar 2 or some other BEV in the past month? Please jump in to the comments and share you thoughts.
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